Articles | Volume 1, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/eo-1-77-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/eo-1-77-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Connecting earth observation anomalies to farmer surveys for monitoring impacts of agricultural drought on rainfed rice yields in Nigeria
Nick Gutkin
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven, Leuven, 3000, Belgium
VITO (Flemish Institute for Technological Research), Mol, 2400, Belgium
Chiamaka I. Ehiemere
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Geoinformatics and Surveying, University of Nigeria Nsukka, 410105, Enugu, Nigeria
Koen De Vos
VITO (Flemish Institute for Technological Research), Mol, 2400, Belgium
Nnamdi Ehiemere
Department of Estate Management, University of Nigeria Nsukka, 410105, Enugu, Nigeria
Jeroen Degerickx
VITO (Flemish Institute for Technological Research), Mol, 2400, Belgium
Sarah Gebruers
VITO (Flemish Institute for Technological Research), Mol, 2400, Belgium
Uchechukwu Nwafor
Department of Geoinformatics and Surveying, University of Nigeria Nsukka, 410105, Enugu, Nigeria
Anne Gobin
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, KU Leuven, Leuven, 3000, Belgium
Related authors
No articles found.
Jose P. Terán, Jhon Vila, Juan García-Quijano, and Anne Gobin
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-604, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2026-604, 2026
Short summary
Short summary
Rainfall data from satellites are often used where rain gauge data is limited, but satellite data can miss local patterns and intense storms, especially in mountainous regions. We tested simple methods to increase the spatial detail of a global rainfall dataset for the Peruvian Andes and compared it with regional products and local observations. Our approach improved spatial detail without reducing overall rainfall pattern accuracy, supporting more detailed hydro-meteorological assessments.
Kristof Van Tricht, Jeroen Degerickx, Sven Gilliams, Daniele Zanaga, Marjorie Battude, Alex Grosu, Joost Brombacher, Myroslava Lesiv, Juan Carlos Laso Bayas, Santosh Karanam, Steffen Fritz, Inbal Becker-Reshef, Belén Franch, Bertran Mollà-Bononad, Hendrik Boogaard, Arun Kumar Pratihast, Benjamin Koetz, and Zoltan Szantoi
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 5491–5515, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5491-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5491-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
WorldCereal is a global mapping system that addresses food security challenges. It provides seasonal updates on crop areas and irrigation practices, enabling informed decision-making for sustainable agriculture. Our global products offer insights into temporary crop extent, seasonal crop type maps, and seasonal irrigation patterns. WorldCereal is an open-source tool that utilizes space-based technologies, revolutionizing global agricultural mapping.
Cited articles
Adedeji, O., Olusola, A., James, G., Shaba, H. A., Orimoloye, I. R., Singh, S. K., and Adelabu, S.: Early warning systems development for agricultural drought assessment in Nigeria, Environ. Monit. Assess., 192, 798, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-020-08730-3, 2020.
Adefisan, E. A. and Abatan, A. A.: Agroclimatic Zonning of Nigeria Based on Rainfall Characteristics and Index of Drought Proneness, Journal of Environment and Earth Science, 5, 115, https://www.iiste.org/Journals/index.php/JEES/article/view/23310/24056 (last access: 30 April 2026), 2015.
Adenle, A. A., Eckert, S., Adedeji, O. I., Ellison, D., and Speranza, C. I.: Human-induced land degradation dominance in the Nigerian Guinea Savannah between 2003 – 2018, Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment, 19, 100360, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsase.2020.100360, 2020.
Afiukwa, C. A. A., Faluyi, J. O., Atkinson, C. J., Ubi, B. E. U., Igwe, D. O., and Akinwale, R. O.: Screening of some rice varieties and landraces cultivated in Nigeria for drought tolerance based on phenotypic traits and their association with SSR polymorphisms, Afr. J. Agr. Res., 11, 2599–2615, https://doi.org/10.5897/AJAR2016.11239, 2016.
Ajetomobi, J., Abiodun, A., and Hassan, R.: Impacts of climate change on rice agriculture in Nigeria, Tropical and Subtropical Agroecosystems, 14, 613–622, 2011.
Akinyemi, D. F., Ayanlade, O. S., Nwaezeigwe, J. O., and Ayanlade, A.: A Comparison of the Accuracy of Multi-satellite Precipitation Estimation and Ground Meteorological Records Over Southwestern Nigeria, Remote Sens. Earth Syst. Sci., 3, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1007/s41976-019-00029-3, 2020.
Akpoilih, O. A. and Dada, O. A.: Morphological Response and Yield of Rice Cultivars to Water Deficit Condition at Different Growth Stages on Sandy Loam Soil in Tropical Rainforest, Journal of Agriculture and Sustainability, 18, https://infinitypress.info/index.php/jas/article/view/2279 (last access: 7 April 2026), 2025.
Alagbo, O. O., Akinyemiju, O. A., and Chauhan, B. S.: Weed management in rainfed lowland rice ecology in Nigeria – challenges and opportunities, Weed Technol., 36, 583–591, https://doi.org/10.1017/wet.2022.57, 2022.
Ali, A. M., Thind, H. S., Sharma, S., and Varinderpal-Singh: Prediction of dry direct-seeded rice yields using chlorophyll meter, leaf color chart and GreenSeeker optical sensor in northwestern India, Field Crop. Res., 161, 11–15, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2014.03.001, 2014.
Bauer-Marshallinger, B.: Soil Water Index (SWI) Version 3.0, Copernicus Land Monitoring Service [data set], https://doi.org/10.2909/98c5e00e-3580-4bb3-9509-50a572b1e935, 2018.
Bayissa, Y. A., Tadesse, T., Svoboda, M., Wardlow, B., Poulsen, C., Swigart, J., and Van Andel, S. J.: Developing a satellite-based combined drought indicator to monitor agricultural drought: a case study for Ethiopia, GISci. Remote Sens., 56, 718–748, https://doi.org/10.1080/15481603.2018.1552508, 2019.
Boonjung, H. and Fukai, S.: Effects of soil water deficit at different growth stages on rice growth and yield under upland conditions. 2. Phenology, biomass production and yield, Field Crop. Res., 48, 47–55, https://doi.org/10.1016/0378-4290(96)00039-1, 1996.
Boschetti, M., Nutini, F., Brivio, P. A., Bartholomé, E., Stroppiana, D., and Hoscilo, A.: Identification of environmental anomaly hot spots in West Africa from time series of NDVI and rainfall, ISPRS J. Photogramm., 78, 26–40, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isprsjprs.2013.01.003, 2013.
Cammalleri, C., McCormick, N., Spinoni, J., and Nielsen-Gammon, J. W.: An Analysis of the Lagged Relationship between Anomalies of Precipitation and Soil Moisture and Its Potential Role in Agricultural Drought Early Warning, J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim., 63, 339–350, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-23-0077.1, 2024.
Chiaka, J. C., Zhen, L., Yunfeng, H., Xiao, Y., Muhirwa, F., and Lang, T.: Smallholder Farmers Contribution to Food Production in Nigeria, Front. Nutr., 9, https://doi.org/10.3389/fnut.2022.916678, 2022.
De Vos, K., Gebruers, S., Degerickx, J., Iordache, M.-D., Keune, J., Di Giuseppe, F., Vilela Pereira, F., Wouters, H., Swinnen, E., Van Rossum, K., and Tits, L.: Predicting below-average NDVI anomalies for agricultural drought impact forecasting, Remote Sens. Environ., 330, 114980, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2025.114980, 2025.
Eludoyin, O. M., Adelekan, I. O., Webster, R., and Eludoyin, A. O.: Air temperature, relative humidity, climate regionalization and thermal comfort of Nigeria, Int. J. Climatol., 34, 2000–2018, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3817, 2014.
Erenstein, O., Lançon, F., Akande, S. O., Titilola, S. O., Akpokodje, G., and Ogundele, O. O.: Rice production systems in Nigeria: a survey, West African Rice Development Association (WARDA), Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire, https://www.inter-reseaux.org/wp-content/uploads/pdf_nigeria_rice_production_systems.pdf (last access: 16 March 2026), 2003.
Eze, E., Girma, A., Zenebe, A. A., and Zenebe, G.: Feasible crop insurance indexes for drought risk management in Northern Ethiopia, Int. J. Disast. Risk Re., 47, 101544, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101544, 2020.
FAO in Nigeria: https://www.fao.org/nigeria/fao-in-nigeria/nigeria-at-a-glance/en/, last access: 27 February 2026.
Federal Ministry of Environment: National Drought Plan, Federal Ministry of Environment, https://www.unccd.int/sites/default/files/country_profile_documents/1%2520FINAL_NDP_Nigeria.pdf (last access: 28 April 2026), 2018.
FORMECU: The Assessment of Vegetation and Landuse Changes in Nigeria, FORMECU, Abuja, Nigeria, WorldBank, report no. 77994, https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/611631468291342228 (last access: 28 April 2026), 1998.
Gommes, R., Wu, B., Zhang, N., Feng, X., Zeng, H., Li, Z., and Chen, B.: CropWatch agroclimatic indicators (CWAIs) for weather impact assessment on global agriculture, Int. J. Biometeorol., 61, 199–215, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-016-1199-7, 2017.
Guo, X., Zhang, Z., Zhang, X., Bi, M., and Das, P.: Landscape vulnerability assessment driven by drought and precipitation anomalies in sub-Saharan Africa, Environ. Res. Lett., 18, 064035, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acd866, 2023.
Guo, X., Zhang, Z., Zhang, X., and Feng, S.: The inclusion of time-lag response reveals contrasting effects of meteorological and agricultural drought on agroecosystem water use efficiency in Africa, J. Hydrol., 664, 134346, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.134346, 2026.
Gutkin, N.: gutkinn/MOFODRONI-EO: Release for publishing (Version v1.0), Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22274223, 2026.
Gutkin, N., Ehiemere, C. I., De Vos, K., Ehiemere, N., Degerickx, J., and Gebruers, S.: MOFODRONI dataset, Earth Observation, Zenodo [data set], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19593937, 2026.
Gyimah-Brempong, K., Johnson, M., and Takeshima, H.: The Nigerian Rice Economy: Policy Options for Transforming Production, Marketing, and Trade, University of Pennsylvania Press, 320 pp., ISBN 9780812248951, 2016.
Hazaymeh, K., Hassan, Q. K., Hazaymeh, K., and Hassan, Q. K.: Remote sensing of agricultural drought monitoring: A state of art review, AIMSES, 3, 604–630, https://doi.org/10.3934/environsci.2016.4.604, 2016.
Henchiri, M., Liu, Q., Essifi, B., Javed, T., Zhang, S., Bai, Y., and Zhang, J.: Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Drought and Impact on Vegetation in North and West Africa Based on Multi-Satellite Data, Remote Sens., 12, 3869, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12233869, 2020.
Jabbi, F. F., Li, Y., Zhang, T., Bin, W., Hassan, W., and Songcai, Y.: Impacts of Temperature Trends and SPEI on Yields of Major Cereal Crops in the Gambia, Sustainability, 13, 12480, https://doi.org/10.3390/su132212480, 2021.
Jung, M. and Chang, E.: NDVI-based land-cover change detection using harmonic analysis, Int. J. Remote Sens., 36, 1097–1113, https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2015.1007252, 2015.
Keune, J., Di Giuseppe, F., Barnard, C., Damasio da Costa, E., and Wetterhall, F.: ERA5–Drought: Global drought indices based on ECMWF reanalysis, Sci. Data, 12, 616, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-025-04896-y, 2025.
Kijoji, A. A., Nchimbi-Msolla, S., Kanyeka, Z. L., Serraj, R., and Henry, A.: Linking root traits and grain yield for rainfed rice in sub-Saharan Africa: Response of Oryza sativa × Oryza glaberrima introgression lines under drought, Field Crop. Res., 165, 25–35, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2014.03.019, 2014.
Kim, I., Elisha, I., Lawrence, E., and Moses, M.: Farmers Adaptation Strategies to the Effect of Climate Variation on Rice Production: Insight from Benue State, Nigeria, Environment and Ecology Research, 5, 289–301, https://doi.org/10.13189/eer.2017.050406, 2017.
Kirchner, E., Benami, E., Hobbs, A., Carter, M. R., and Jin, Z.: Get in the Zone: The Risk-Adjusted Welfare Effects of Data-Driven vs. Administrative Borders for Index Insurance Zones, J. Dev. Econ., 103658, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103658, 2025.
Kogan, F. N.: Remote sensing of weather impacts on vegetation in non-homogeneous areas, Int. J. Remote Sens., 11, 1405–1419, https://doi.org/10.1080/01431169008955102, 1990.
Kogan, F. N.: Droughts of the Late 1980s in the United States as Derived from NOAA Polar-Orbiting Satellite Data, B. Am. Meteor. Soc., 76, 655–668, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1995)076<0655:DOTLIT>2.0.CO;2, 1995.
Lay, U. S., Nwaezeigwe, J. O., and Aaron-Ibrahim, V.: Geospatial Assessment of Rainfall Variability and Drought Occurrences in North-Central Nigeria, in: Extreme Climate Events, Loss and Damage in Africa: Resilience and Adaptation, edited by: Ayanlade, A., Nyasimi, M., and Boyd, E., Springer Nature Switzerland, Cham, 121–145, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-032-11678-9_6, 2026.
Liu, X., Zhu, X., Pan, Y., Li, S., Liu, Y., and Ma, Y.: Agricultural drought monitoring: Progress, challenges, and prospects, J. Geogr. Sci., 26, 750–767, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-016-1297-9, 2016.
Makuya, V., Tesfuhuney, W., Moeletsi, M. E., and Bello, Z.: Assessing the Impact of Agricultural Drought on Yield over Maize Growing Areas, Free State Province, South Africa, Using the SPI and SPEI, Sustainability, 16, https://doi.org/10.3390/su16114703, 2024.
Masih, I., Maskey, S., Mussá, F. E. F., and Trambauer, P.: A review of droughts on the African continent: a geospatial and long-term perspective, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3635–3649, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3635-2014, 2014.
Mba, C. L., Madu, A. I., Ajaero, C. K., and Obetta, A. E.: Patterns of rice production and yields in south eastern Nigeria, African Journal of Food, Agriculture, Nutrition and Development, 21, 18330–18348, 2021.
Mbah, E. N., Ezeano, C. I., and Saror, S. F.: Analysis of Climate Change Effects among Rice Farmers in Benue State, Nigeria, Current Research in Agricultural Sciences, 3, 7–15, https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.68/2016.3.1/68.1.7.15, 2016.
Medida, S. K., Rani, P. P., Kumar, G. V. S., Sireesha, P. V. G., Kranthi, K. C., Vinusha, V., Sneha, L., Naik, B. S. S. S., Pramanick, B., Brestic, M., Gaber, A., and Hossain, A.: Detection of water deficit conditions in different soils by comparative analysis of standard precipitation index and normalized difference vegetation index, Heliyon, 9, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e15093, 2023.
Mwinjuma, M., Wang, R., Mtupili, M., and Twaha, M.: Comparisons of SPI and SPEI in capturing drought dynamics: A Global assessment across arid and humid regions, Atmos. Res., 329, 108475, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108475, 2026.
NAERLS and FMARD: 2020 Wet Season Agricultural Performace in Nigeria, NAERLS and FMARD, Zaria, Nigeria, https://naerls.gov.ng/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Agricultural-Performance-Survey-of-2020-Wet-Season-in-Nigeria.pdf (last access: 30 April 2026), 2020.
NAERLS and FMARD: National Report of Wet Season Agricultural Performance in Nigeria, NAERLS and FMARD, Zaria, Nigeria, https://naerls.gov.ng/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/Agricultural-Performance-Survey-of-2021-Wet-Season-in-Nigeria.pdf (last access: 30 April 2026), 2021.
NAERLS and FMARD: Agricultural Performance Survey of 2023 Wet Season in Nigeria, NAERLS and FMARD, Zaria, Nigeria, https://naerls.gov.ng/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Agricultural-Performance-Survey-of-2023-Wet-Season-in-Nigeria.pdf (last access: 30 April 2026), 2023.
NAERLS and FMARD: Agricultural Performance Survey of 2024 Wet Season in Nigeria, NAERLS and FMARD, Zaria, Nigeria, https://naerls.gov.ng/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Agricultural-Performance-Survey-of-2024-Wet-Season-in-Nigeria.pdf (last access: 30 April 2026), 2024.
National Bureau of Statistics: Annual Abstract of Statistics, 2019, National Bureau of Statistics, https://www.nigerianstat.gov.ng/elibrary/read/1241069 (last access: 4 May 2026), 2019.
National Bureau of Statistics: Nigeria Flood Impact, Recovery and Mitigation Assessment Report 2022–2023, National Bureau of Statistics, National Emergency Management Agency and United Nations Development Programme, Abuja, Nigeria, https://www.undp.org/sites/g/files/zskgke326/files/2023-12/nigeriafloodimpactrecoverymitigationassessmentreport2023.pdf (last access: 30 April 2026), 2023.
Nigeria – Global yield gap atlas: https://yieldgap.com/pages/main.xhtml?view=country_ssa_rice, last access: 27 February 2026.
Nigerian Meteorological Agency: Hydro Meteorology Bulletin January – March 2025, Nigerian Meteorological Agency, https://nimet.gov.ng/publication_detail?id=65 (last access: 4 May 2026), 2025.
NiMet: July 2023 Climate and Health Bulletin, NiMet, https://nimet.gov.ng/publication_detail?id=7 (last access: 30 April 2026), 2023.
NiMet: State of the Climate in Nigeria, NiMet, https://nimet.gov.ng/publication_detail?id=44 (last access: 30 April 2026), 2024.
Nwalieji, H. U. and Uzuegbunam, C. O.: Effect of Climate Change on Rice Production in Anambra State, Nigeria, Journal of Agricultural Extension, 16, 81–91, https://doi.org/10.4314/jae.v16i2.7, 2012.
Odongo, R. A., De Moel, H., and Van Loon, A. F.: Propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought in the Horn of Africa using both standardized and threshold-based indices, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2365–2386, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-2365-2023, 2023.
Ofuoku, A. and Obıazı, C.: Constraints to Access and Utilization of Meteorological Services in Delta State, Nigeria, Yuzuncu Il Univ. J. Agric. Sci., 31, 150–161, https://doi.org/10.29133/yyutbd.738294, 2021.
Ogunrinde, A. T., Oguntunde, P. G., Akinwumiju, A. S., and Fasinmirin, J. T.: Analysis of recent changes in rainfall and drought indices in Nigeria, 1981–2015, Hydrol. Sci. J., 64, 17551768, https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2019.1673396, 2019.
Ogunrinde, A. T., Enaboifo, M. A., Olotu, Y., Pham, Q. B., and Tayo, A. B.: Characterization of drought using four drought indices under climate change in the Sahel region of Nigeria: 1981–2015, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 143, 843–860, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03453-4, 2021.
Ogunrinde, A. T., Oguntunde, P. G., Akinwumiju, A. S., Fasinmirin, J. T., Olasehinde, D. A., Pham, Q. B., Linh, N. T. T., and Anh, D. T.: Impact of Climate Change and Drought Attributes in Nigeria, Atmosphere, 13, 1874, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13111874, 2022.
Ojo, T. O., Ogundeji, A. A., and Emenike, C. U.: Does Adoption of Climate Change Adaptation Strategy Improve Food Security? A Case of Rice Farmers in Ogun State, Nigeria, Land, 11, 1875, https://doi.org/10.3390/land11111875, 2022.
Okpara, J. N., Afiesimama, E. A., Anuforom, A. C., Owino, A., and Ogunjobi, K. O.: The applicability of Standardized Precipitation Index: drought characterization for early warning system and weather index insurance in West Africa, Nat. Hazards, 89, 555–583, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-2980-6, 2017.
Olaniyan, E. A., Cafaro, C., Ogungbenro, S. B., Gbode, I. E., Ajayi, V. O., Oluleye, A., Adefisan, E. A., Schwendike, J., and Lawal, K. A.: Performance evaluation of a high resolution regional model over West Africa for operational use: A case study of August 2017, Meteorol. Appl., 29, e2080, https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2080, 2022.
Oloyede, A., Ozuomba, S., Asuquo, P., Olatomiwa, L., and Longe, O. M.: Data-driven techniques for temperature data prediction: big data analytics approach, Environ. Monit. Assess., 195, 343, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-023-10961-z, 2023.
Omoare, A. M. and Oyediran, W. O.: Factors Affecting Rice Farming Practices among Farmers in Ogun and Niger States, Nigeria, Journal of Agricultural Extension, 24, 92–103, https://doi.org/10.4314/jae.v24i2.10, 2020.
Onafeso, O. D., Akanni, C. O., and Badejo, B. A.: Climate Change Dynamics and Imperatives for Food Security in Nigeria, Indonesian Journal of Geography, 47, 151, https://doi.org/10.22146/ijg.9254, 2016.
Onyejuruwa, A., Hu, Z., Anosike, C., Islam, A. R. M. d. T., and Madhushanka, D.: Assessment of WRF model simulations of extreme rainfall events in West Africa: a comprehensive review, Environ. Monit. Assess., 197, 486, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-025-13932-8, 2025.
Onyeneke, R. U.: Does climate change adaptation lead to increased productivity of rice production? Lessons from Ebonyi State, Nigeria, Renew. Agric. Food Syst., 36, 54–68, https://doi.org/10.1017/S1742170519000486, 2021.
Page, Y. L., Vasconcelos, M., Palminha, A., Melo, I. Q., and Pereira, J. M. C.: An operational approach to high resolution agro-ecological zoning in West-Africa, PLOS ONE, 12, e0183737, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0183737, 2017.
Paulik, C., Dorigo, W., Wagner, W., and Kidd, R.: Validation of the ASCAT Soil Water Index using in situ data from the International Soil Moisture Network, Int. J. Appl. Earth Obs., 30, 1–8, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2014.01.007, 2014.
Perera, S., Allali, M., Linstead, E., and El-Askary, H.: Deriving Drought Vulnerability Index using Geographically Weighted Principal Component Analysis (GWPCA) and K-Means Clustering for Nile Basin, in: IGARSS 2022 – 2022 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium, 3187–3190, https://doi.org/10.1109/IGARSS46834.2022.9883425, 2022.
Phyu, P., Islam, M. R., Sta Cruz, P. C., Collard, B. C. Y., and Kato, Y.: Use of NDVI for indirect selection of high yield in tropical rice breeding, Euphytica, 216, 74, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10681-020-02598-7, 2020.
Raml, B. and Bauer-Marshallinger, B.: Copernicus Global Land operations “Vegetation and Energy”, https://land.copernicus.eu/en/technical-library/product-user-manual-soil-water-index-0.1deg/ (last access: 16 March 2026), 2025.
Rigden, A. J., Golden, C., and Huybers, P.: Retrospective Predictions of Rice and Other Crop Production in Madagascar Using Soil Moisture and an NDVI-Based Calendar from 2010–2017, Remote Sens., 14, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14051223, 2022.
Rojas, O.: Next Generation Agricultural Stress Index System (ASIS) for Agricultural Drought Monitoring, Remote Sens., 13, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13050959, 2021.
Sanusi, M. M. and Dries, L.: Smallholder rice farmers' resilience to water insecurity in Ogun State Nigeria, Reg. Environ. Change, 25, 30, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-025-02364-2, 2025.
Smets, B., Tavares, J. L., Toté, C., and Wolters, E.: Normalized Difference Vegetation Index Collection 1KM Version 3, Copernicus Land Monitoring Service [data set], https://doi.org/10.2909/8048eb1c-8579-45c6-b188-b0a26ef26248, 2020.
States in Nigeria by Ecological Zone: https://nfhl.naerls.gov.ng/index.php?action=faq&cat=1&id=1&artlang=en, last access: 15 April 2026.
Swinnen, E., Toté, C., and Wolfs, D.: Normalized difference vegetation index collection 300M version 2, Copernicus Land Monitoring Service [data set], https://doi.org/10.2909/ae760a70-708e-459a-8eec-6852462a5faf, 2022.
Tefera, M. L., Seddaiu, G., Carletti, A., and Awada H.: Rainfall variability and drought in West Africa: challenges and implications for rainfed agriculture, Theor. Appl. Climatol., 156, 41, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-05251-8, 2024.
Tian, L., Zhang, B., and Wu, P.: A global drought dataset of standardized moisture anomaly index incorporating snow dynamics (SZIsnow) and its application in identifying large-scale drought events, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14, 2259–2278, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2259-2022, 2022.
Tirivarombo, S., Osupile, D., and Eliasson, P.: Drought monitoring and analysis: Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), Phys. Chem. Earth A/B/C, 106, 1–10, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2018.07.001, 2018.
Traore, S. B., Ali, A., Tinni, S. H., Samake, M., Garba, I., Maigari, I., Alhassane, A., Samba, A., Diao, M. B., Atta, S., Dieye, P. O., Nacro, H. B., and Bouafou, K. G. M.: AGRHYMET: A drought monitoring and capacity building center in the West Africa Region, Weather and Climate Extremes, 3, 22–30, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2014.03.008, 2014.
Udemezue, J. C.: Analysis of Rice Production and Consumption Trends in Nigeria, Journal of Plant Sciences and Crop Protection, 1, 1–6, 2018.
van Ginkel, M. and Biradar, C.: Drought Early Warning in Agri-Food Systems, Climate, 9, 134, https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9090134, 2021.
Van Hoolst, R., Eerens, H., Haesen, D., Royer, A., Bydekerke, L., Rojas, O., Li, Y., and Racionzer, P.: FAO's AVHRR-based Agricultural Stress Index System (ASIS) for global drought monitoring, Int. J. Remote Sens., 37, 418–439, https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2015.1126378, 2016.
Vos, R., Husain, A., Greb, F., Läderach, P., and Rice, B.: Food crisis risk monitoring: Early warning for early action, in: Global Food Policy Report 2023: Rethinking Food Crisis Responses, Chap. 2, 20–35, https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896294417_02, 2023.
Winkler, K., Gessner, U., and Hochschild, V.: Identifying Droughts Affecting Agriculture in Africa Based on Remote Sensing Time Series between 2000–2016: Rainfall Anomalies and Vegetation Condition in the Context of ENSO, Remote Sens., 9, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs9080831, 2017.
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and Global Water Partnership (GWP): Handbook of Drought Indicators and Indices, edited by: Svoboda, M. and Fuchs, B. A., Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP), Integrated Drought Management Tools and Guidelines Series 2, Geneva, ISBN 978-91-87823-24-4, 2016.
Wu, J., Feng, Y., Liang, L., He, X., and Zeng, Z.: Assessing evapotranspiration observed from ECOSTRESS using flux measurements in agroecosystems, Agr. Water Manage., 269, 107706, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2022.107706, 2022.
Zampieri, M., Garcia, G. C., Dentener, F., Gumma, M. K., Salamon, P., Seguini, L., and Toreti, A.: Surface Freshwater Limitation Explains Worst Rice Production Anomaly in India in 2002, Remote Sens., 10, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs10020244, 2018.
Zampieri, M., Piccardo, M., Girardello, M., Ceccherini, G., Hoteit, I., and Cescatti, A.: Remote monitoring of plant drought stress with the apparent heat capacity, Sci. Total Environ., 1000, 180391, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2025.180391, 2025.
Zhang, K., Ge, X., Shen, P., Li, W., Liu, X., Cao, Q., Zhu, Y., Cao, W., and Tian, Y.: Predicting Rice Grain Yield Based on Dynamic Changes in Vegetation Indexes during Early to Mid-Growth Stages, Remote Sens., 11, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11040387, 2019.
Zribi, M., Nativel, S., and Page, M. L.: Analysis of Agronomic Drought in a Highly Anthropogenic Context Based on Satellite Monitoring of Vegetation and Soil Moisture, Remote Sens., 13, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13142698, 2021.
Short summary
This study combines earth observation indicators and farmer survey data collected in four rice-growing states in Nigeria to assess drought impacts on rainfed rice yields. We use regression models to connect meteorological indices and earth observation indicator anomalies to identify drought moments over the years 2020–2024, demonstrating that indicator anomalies are correlated to rice yield changes, particularly when anomaly values are aggregated temporally over separate rice growth stages.
This study combines earth observation indicators and farmer survey data collected in four...